Potential changes to the Graduate visa expected later this year
3rd March, 2025
Recent reports suggest that the Home Office intends to raise the bar for overseas graduates wishing to remain in the UK, as part of the government's continued plans to cut net migration.
What is the Graduate visa?
The Graduate visa route enables an overseas student who has successfully completed a course of study at UK bachelor’s degree or above with a Home Office-approved higher education provider to remain in the UK to work, or look for work, for a period of 2 or 3 years (depending on the level of degree course they have successfully completed).
The route was introduced in July 2021, however is considered to be somewhat of a repeat of the previous Tier 1 Post-Study Work visa route that was closed by the Home Office in 2012.
The route offers a flexible option for overseas graduates who know they want to live and work in the UK but haven’t yet been able to secure employment. It gives graduates time to look for work or build up relevant work experience to secure a job, the goal usually being that they will eventually find a position which is eligible for sponsorship and enable them to switch into the Skilled Worker visa category.
What changes have been suggested?
This week, The Times reported that the Home Office may be planning to make it more difficult for graduates to remain in the UK after completing their degree.
Proposed changes to the route would see the Home Office requiring graduates to secure a “graduate-level job” in the UK before being allowed to stay under the Graduate route. The finer detail on these proposed changes is not currently clear, however they will apparently form part of the government’s White Paper which is set to be published later this year.
The reason for these proposed changes is connected with the government’s ongoing agenda to reduce net migration in the UK. In 2024, the government commissioned the Migration Advisory Committee to assess and provide a rapid review of the Graduate route, to ascertain whether the route was being used properly, what was the impact of the route on migrant numbers in the UK, and whether the intended objectives of re-introducing a post-study route were being met.
The MAC’s conclusion to the review last year was in support of the Graduate route remaining as it is:
“After reviewing the evidence, our conclusion is clear. The Graduate route has broadly achieved, and continues to achieve, the objectives set by this government. We therefore recommend that the route remains in place in its current form.”
Despite such comments from MAC, these latest reports suggest that changes to the Graduate route remain at the forefront of the government’s mind in terms of their goal to reduce net migration.
What could the implications be?
Introducing the requirement for a “graduate-level job” (and presumably, a graduate-level salary requirement to go with this) will undoubtedly make it harder for overseas students to apply for a Graduate visa. It may also deter some international students from choosing the UK as their place to study and begin their careers, or could leave some overseas students in a position where they need to leave the UK after completing their course because they cannot find a suitable job before their visa will expire. We have set out below the potential implications this could have on the UK economy.
Financial hardship for UK HE industry
Firstly, any impact on the number of international students choosing the UK as their place of study is going to have a negative financial impact for Higher Education providers in the UK.
MAC warned of this financial impact in their 2024 review. They cited the fact that the government had already taken action in 2023 to tighten the rules on which overseas students could bring dependants to the UK from January 2024 (now only permitting dependants of students at PhD level).
MAC also stated in its review that:
“Any additional restrictions on the Graduate route will likely further exacerbate the decline in international student numbers. This is a competitive market and students that are planning to study abroad unsurprisingly exhibit flexibility over country choice.
There are two inevitable consequences of further restrictions.
First, the government will likely fail to achieve the target set in the International Education Strategy. We have assumed that this strategy remains government policy as it was highlighted to us in the commissioning letter.
Second, universities across the nations of the UK will experience further substantial financial difficulty leading to job losses, course closures and a reduction in research, and in the extreme it is not inconceivable that some institutions would fail.”
MAC’s concerns seem to have been correct, as recent Home Office data monitoring numbers of entry clearance visa applications at the end of January 2025 is down 13% from the numbers in January 2024.
It is expected that, if the proposed changes are made to the Graduate route, the number of overseas students choosing the UK may decrease even further.
Skill/Talent shortages
Secondly, we are likely to see a loss of talent and skills that the UK could suffer as a result of international students being deterred from studying and working in the UK.
If these changes to the Graduate route do deter overseas nationals from studying in the UK and looking for work, this is likely to impact employers who recruit international students after finishing their degrees, particularly in industries with skills shortages.
Specifically, sectors such as the care sector and tech are likely to be impacted, along with SMEs, but even larger employers will want to keep a close eye on these proposals.
Youth Mobility Scheme for EU nationals
Alongside reports of potential tightening of the Graduate visa route, there have also been reports of Keir Stamer’s plans to open up the existing Youth Mobility Scheme visa to EU nationals.
This reciprocal EU-UK Youth Mobility Scheme would allow a set number of young Europeans, aged 18 to 30, to work and travel in the UK for up to three years and in return, young British people would be able to do the same in the EU.
Plans are currently being rejected by Ministers, but if this does go ahead, it could perhaps go some way towards addressing issues with recruitment and skills shortages caused by the reduction (and likely further reduction) of international students choosing the UK as their place of study.
How would the changes work?
It is unclear whether the Home Office will follow through with these proposed changes, particularly considering the expected pushback they are likely to get from the HE industry and employers. However, if they did go ahead with these changes, it is also currently unclear as to how these requirements would be added into the Graduate route.
Would the Graduate route become a points-based system which requires an individual to be sponsored by a UK sponsor in a ‘graduate-level job’, similar to the Skilled Worker route that already exists (and is usually the natural next step once the Graduate has found work)? If that is the case, the Graduate route seems to become obsolete as an individual who can find this graduate-level work might be better applying for a Skilled Worker visa, because this offers a route to settlement.
Alternatively, if the Graduate route does not require sponsorship, then how would the Home Office implement this requirement to have a ‘graduate-level job’? Would they expect employers to understand what qualifies as ‘graduate-level’ and enforce this? This would come with its own challenges.
Watch this space
It remains to be seen whether these reports are simply speculation or if they will come to anything. When asked about the proposed changes by The Times in their report, the Home Office said:
“Our upcoming immigration white paper will set out a comprehensive plan to restore order to our broken immigration system, linking immigration, skills and visa systems to grow our domestic workforce, end reliance on overseas labour and boost economic growth. We are not getting into a running commentary on what will be contained in the white paper.”
What does seem clear (and has been for a number of years) is that the Student/Graduate routes are areas of immigration law which are vulnerable to change as a result of the government’s ongoing aim to reduce net migration. We expect to see further speculation ahead of the publication of the White Paper later this year (expected around June 2025 but not yet confirmed) and so please ‘watch this space’.
For further advice, contact one of our Immigration experts.
Please note that this briefing is designed to be informative, not advisory and represents our understanding of English law and practice as at the date indicated. We would always recommend that you should seek specific guidance on any particular legal issue.
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